Migration in China: a gravity model with 2015 mini census data

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Abstract

Utilizing geographical information system (GIS) tools, this article applies generalized gravity model to China’s inter-provincial migration between 2010 and 2015. The effects population, distance, wage and frontier status of provinces remain similar with previous periods. However, the impact of origin GDP per capita has changed from positive to negative, suggesting that residents in the poorest provinces have begun have enough information and financial resources to leave. Warm provinces are more attractive than cold ones, and people tend to move to provinces with similar amounts of rainfall as the origin. Abundant higher education opportunities attract inbound migration, and inhibit outbound migration. The effects of higher education over-capacity are stronger when the province is less developed. Although whether high housing price discourages inbound migration is not clear, evidence seems to suggest that high housing cost at home pushes residents to leave.